Updated Playoff Odds, 4/29

All first-round series except San Antonio/Memphis have been decided.

Serieses?


Easiest battle is Chicago over Atlanta in 5.
Closest series is the Los Angeles over Dallas in 6.

Not Exactly On Hiatus

Hello all!

I am currently finishing up my 8th semester at Appalachian State, and graduating in a couple of weeks.
I've been busy with non-basketball...or at least I've been attempting to be busy with non-basketball.

I'll be writing a bit for The Coolest Basketball Site (TM) this summer, which I am extremely excited about.


Anyways, here are my silly opinions on basketball as the playoffs begin:

• Kevin Love is NOT the MIP. He's not even in the 100 best players in the league. (Individual rebounds and Rebound% are not all that telling). And he is most DEFINITELY not the MVP *shudder*.
• Derrick Rose is not the MVP. Even if you're supposed to choose "Best player on the Best team," he does not appear to be that. He is a close overall candidate by some agreeable measures, however.
• Oh, and, with Harrison Barnes staying in Chapel Hill, the pre-season rankings will look something like this:
  
• #1: North Carolina
• #2: Ohio St.
• ...
• ...
• #1,000: Eventual National Champion

-Nathan

NBA Playoffs, With and Without Derrick Rose

Using my new estimate for playoff minutes and the updated ridge +/- numbers, I have simulated the NBA playoffs WITH and WITHOUT Derrick Rose (just for fun).


Making the Bulls worse by 1.33 points per 100 possessions hurts the Bulls' chances of making the finals by 10.8%, gives the Magic an 8.1% better chance of making the Semis, and so forth (all these are documented in the huge link above).

This obviously does not take into account matchup differences, Rose's "true" value (which I am just estimating), etc.



EDIT: Next "without" simulation is my NBA Finals MVP: Pau Gasol.

Playoff Odds as of April 8th

I simulated the NBA playoffs, under a few assumptions.

1) Memphis makes the playoffs
2) There are no tie-breakers and teams are seeded according to conference standings
2) The regularized +/- 2011 numbers are accurate

(5:38p EST) - NEW RESULTS, updated with estimated playoff minutes

EDIT: A bit on the method.

I took all players who aren't out for the season, and converted their minutes into estimated playoff minutes (per DSMok1's suggestion), which I then had to adjust to force each team's game minutes to sum to 240 total minutes.

I then looked at each player's regularized +/- numbers, and gave them a contribution of Projected Minutes% * (Offense+Defense).

I then set the league average to zero, and each team was given their own "RAPM" rating. This was used to simulate the playoffs via a spreadsheet made by DSMok1 which I modified.